What our model's rule says about IEF
IEF (7–10yr Treasuries) is one of the 15liquid ETFs in Uptogain's published trend model. This page explains how the model's rule treats IEF — the same rule shown to everyone. It is general information, not personalized advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell IEF.
The rule, applied to IEF
Held only while trending
IEF earns a place in the portfolio only while its 3-, 6-, and 12-month momentum is positive. If that trend is intact, it can be held; if it isn't, the rule keeps it out.
Long or flat — never short
The model is either long IEF or holds none of it. It never shorts and never uses leverage, so a broken trend means a weight of zero, not a bet against the asset.
Inverse-volatility weighted
When IEF is held, its size is set by inverse volatility — calmer assets get a larger slice, choppier ones a smaller one — so no single line dominates the sleeve.
Reviewed once a month
The rule is applied on the same monthly cadence for every asset, IEF included. There is no day-trading and no reacting to headlines between rebalances.
Where IEF fits
As a Bonds line, IEF plays this role in the model: the ballast the sleeve rotates toward when risk assets break their trend — a place to wait, not a bet.
IEFis never judged on its own or picked for any individual reader. It competes for a slot on exactly the same terms as every other ETF in the universe — its trend either qualifies it in a given month or it doesn't, and its size, if held, comes straight from the inverse-volatility rule.
This page does not state IEF's current signal or weight. Whether the model holds IEF this month, and at what target weight, is part of the live allocation published on the strategy page, with the week-by-week paper results on the record page. There is no real-money track record — everything published is backtested or paper, and labeled as such.